Does McCain Really Have The GOP Nomination Locked?

Is it really guaranteed that Sen. John McCain will win the Republican nomination? If not, why is this said and what is the motivation?

The people preaching McCain's unavoidable Republican nomination usually fall into one or more of three categories. I've created a name for these stereotypical political cliques.

The Talking Head Pundit(s)-The THP(s) for short

THPs have many motivations. However, their actions usually boil down to a common goal called money. Most THPs will do anything to get attention. A THP will seize upon any incident that will shock or make a large chunk of people unhappy. Not only will they run with it, they will ride it until it no longer appears lucrative to do so. Sensationalization is key to the fattening a THPs' wallet. All it takes is a kernel of truth and a whole lot of smoke to reap the rewards. The motivation is to gain more readers, more viewers, more listeners and so and so on. The larger the audience the larger the cash potential.

The Political Agend-ite(s)-The PA(s) for short

The PAs have exactly what their name implies-a personal political agenda. PAs declare something as truth even if it is anything but. It is not uncommon for a PA to release a carefully worded bold face lie that plays on people's emotions in lieu of common sense. Those with a little more morals offer carefully selected truths worded in a way that leads the recipiant to interpret the information in a way that is desirable to the PA. A PAs motivation can be personal, money, advancement of a cause or so on and so on.

The Political Zombie(s)-The PZ(s) for short

PZs are people who simply don't know any better. People fall into this category for a number of reasons. They can simply believe everything that is told to them, have a lack of experience or education on the given subject and etc. This is exactly what the PAs and the THPs desire you to become so they can lead you in the direction they desire.

Now that we know who is saying it and why it's being said, it is time to answer the million dollar question.

McCain does not have any guarantee of becoming the presidential nomination of the Republican party. Mike Huckabee can still take the Republican nomination in one of two ways.

Lock up the nomination prior to the Republican National Convention through delegate count.

In order for Huckabee to win by this method, he has to win 85% of the remanding delegates. Until recently the conservative vote was hindered by too many splits. This resulted in a huge lead for John McCain. However, to Huckabee's advantage there is now not as much split in the conservative vote.

While this is not easiest way to defeat McCain, saying that it is impossible is flat out false.

Win during a brokered convention.

John McCain has to win 42% of the remaining delegates in order to obtain the nomination prior to the Republican National Convention. If he wins any thing less, he is forced to take his fight for the nomination to the convention.

Regardless of what the PAs, the PZ's and the THP's say, all bets are off and anything can happen during a brokered convention. Many of these delegates can enter the convention leaning one way and then quickly about face for various reasons. It comes down to each candidate pleading his case and the one on one convincing of party delegates who best represents the Republican party. These delegates are not just anybody off the street who votes Republican one year and Democratic the next. These delegates are party faithfuls who knows the beliefs and platform guidelines of the GOP. The GOP platform is a very conservative one and the majority of these card carrying party members are conservatives as well.

This is Huckabee's best chance at winning the nomination and the more delegate wins he brings with him, the better.

The very first Republican convention was brokered. Abraham Lincoln was the last man on the totem poll expected to receive the nomination going into the convention due to his almost nonexistent delegate support. We all know how that turned out.

While it is true that McCain does have an advantage at the moment and a great shot at obtaining the Republican nomination, it is in no way guaranteed.

The next time you hear such rhetoric, be sure to smile. You do not have to be a Political Zombie at the mercy of the Talking Head Pundits and Political Agend-ites.

Even at the risk of sounding like G.I. Joe, I must say-"Knowing is half the battle."